Written by A.J. Brown

Broad Market Analysis - July 21, 2017


Hi team. This is A.J. with Trading Trainer on the evening of Friday, July 21 with your Trading Trainer weekend edition of your Daily Insights. What we’re going to do here is take a look at the Broad Market. By taking a look at the representative indexes of our watch list, namely the Dow Jones Industrial Average, the NASDAQ Composite Index, and the S&P 500 Index. We’re also going to take a look at the New York Stock Exchange Composite Index, and the Vix Volatility Index. Because it is the weekend, we’re going to look at both Daily and Weekly charts.

Before going to look at any charts, team, we’re actually going to log into the Trading Trainer “Learning Community” web portal, by going to login.tradingtrainer.com. Of course once we’ve logged into the “Learning Community” web portal, I’m going to direct you right to today’s “Daily Insights” tab. Further, to the “Recommendations” sub-tab. Team, take a look at the recommendations we have for Monday, which is July 24’s trading session. Slight changes in these recommendations could have major impact on your trading. We’re also going to find here a link to our audio commentary. This is the audio where I take you by the hand through today’s “Daily Insights” tab and its sub-tabs. Go ahead and click on that link. An audio is going to start playing auto-magically in the background in another browser tab or another browser window, depending on how you have your browser configured. Go ahead and listen to that audio the first time you do click through today’s “Daily Insights” and its sub-tabs, it will make sure you hit all the high points. You can always drill down deeper on your own after the audio is over. Team, when you listen to the audio commentary, please pay special close attention to the opening and closing comments.

In the meantime, for this particular “Broad Market Analysis” of this “Chart Of Interest” video series, please click on the “Index Stats” sub-tab. Our trading bias remains bullish. Our industrials shown by the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.15% today on heavy, but below average New York Stock Exchange volume. It fell 0.27% for the week on heavy, but below average New York Stock Exchange weekly volume. Our tech stocks shown by the NASDAQ Composite Index edged down 0.04% percent today on flat, below average NASDAQ exchange volume. It gained 1.19% for the week on heavy, but below average NASDAQ Exchange weekly volume. Large caps shown by the S&P 500 Index edged down 0.04% percent, gained 0.54% for the week.

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Moving onto our secondary indexes, our 100 best stocks out there shown by the S&P 100 fell 0.14% today, gained 0.43% for the week. Our mid caps shown by the S&P 400 Index fell 0.26% today, gained 0.49% for the week. Our small caps shown by the S&P 600 and the Russell 2000, two different perspectives on small caps, fell 0.46% and 0.46% respectively today, gained 0.64% and 0.49% respectively for the week. Our New York Stock Exchange Composite Index fell 0.18% today, gained 0.23% for the week. Our Vix Volatility Index fell 2.3% today, fell 1.58% for the week. Our Gold ETF gained 0.86% today, 2.13% for the week. Our Oil ETF fell 2.81% today, fell 2.61% for the week.

Team, let’s take a look at our economic calendar by going to the “Daily Insights” tab and the “Economic Calendar” sub-tab. First thing I need you to do, team, is read our “Market Reflection” summary from today, Friday, July 21. Then I need you to read the “Market Focus” pointers from Monday, July 24. Also, because it is the weekend, please read the Econoday “International Perspective” and “Simply Economics” reports. These once a week reports are worthwhile for giving us a good foundation for listening to the economic news for the upcoming week.

Back to July 21; we had a very quiet day with almost no economic news.

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Looking forward to Monday, July 24, we have our PMI composite flash and our existing home sales reports in the morning. This upcoming week is about existing home sales, new home sales, home prices. There is a Federal Open Market Committee meeting this upcoming week on Tuesday, ending on Wednesday.

calendarjul24

Let’s move on to our watch list. We’ll go to our “Trading Tools” tab, and our “Watch List” sub-tab. We have three tickers identified by our option trading watchlist candidate filter. We’re going to evaluate those for liquidity and patterns before adding them permanently to our list.

We’ll go to “Trading Tools” and we’ll go to our “Daily Picks” report generation tool. We’ll do a deeper dive on our indexes by taking a look at volume and trends. Volume was about the same as it was on Thursday, about the same as the 50-day volume simple-moving-average and the 200-day volume simple-moving-average. The oscillator is down below the oscillator average. Short duration trends remain bullish, long duration trends remain bullish.

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Going back to our daily picks report generation tool, we’re going to use our template algorithm filters. These mathematically go through whatever raw data they’re presented with, looking for patterns in the numbers. We’re going to present it with the raw data of our index tickers. That’s going to give us an idea of what the broad market personality is doing, as well as what to look for in our watch lists. As you can see here, team, we have our trend continuations and our trend reversals showing a bull trend.

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template21

We have peaked up above our top Bollinger Band.

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Team, let’s take a look at our charts. We’ll go to the “Trading Tools” tab, and the “Charting” sub-tab. Team, let’s take a look at our “Quick Review” template. This is a six-month, daily-chart, linear-scale, open-high-low-close bar, separate pane for volume and volume average. Going to add the 200, the 50, and the 30-day simple-moving-average. These lagging indicators help me determine trend. I have those lagging indicators added to the “Quick Review” template in a user defined template here, available in my personal profile. I want to apply this to the indexes, specifically the Dow Jones Industrial Average to start. Once the chart loads, team, I’m going to expand it to full screen.

We’ll start off by going to a weekly, two-year chart.

djiaweekly1

This week was very much a doji week, an uncertain kind of confused week, but it was on very light volume. Which means it wasn’t confused because people don’t know what’s happening, it was confused because people were not present. Still, we’re trending up. Polarity is up.

Let’s go to our six-month, daily chart.

djiadaily1

Again, another stalled day today. Volume is building, but still below average. 200, 50, 30-day simple-moving-averages are pointing up. Our seven-day simple-moving-average still pointing up, with it just about at the price close.

Let’s take a look at our five minute chart.

djia5min1

Sideways movement, and then a drop down at open and slowly coming up for today’s price action. Kind of misguided. Let’s take a look at our notes. We closed at $21,580.07. All of our indicators continue to point up, we’ll keep a bullish trading bias.

Let’s take a look at the NASDAQ Composite Index. We’ll go to a weekly, two-year chart.

nasdaqweekly1

Very much an s-bar. Let’s see; higher high, higher low, good volume.

Let’s return to our six-month, daily chart.

nasdaqdaily1

Seven is up, 30 is up, 50 is up, 200 is up. We have a higher high after a lower low. Our polarity is testing bull.

Checking out a five minute chart.

nasdaq5min1

Price action just stalled. Back to a daily chart. We closed at $6,387.75, and everything else remains up. Like I said, testing bull for the daily polarity. Overall trading bias is bullish.

S&P 500 Index; we’ll start at our weekly, two-year chart.

sp500weekly1

Continues to move up. Good volume for the summer doldrums.

Back to a six-month, daily chart.

sp500daily1

Continues to move up as well. 30, 50, 200 are pointing up. Seven is pointing up.

Our five minute chart just shows some misguided price action after a gap down at open.

sp5005min1

What we’re seeing during the summer doldrums is a few voices speaking loudly. Closing at $2,472.54. Everything else remains up. We’ll keep a bullish trading bias.

New York Stock Exchange Composite Index, taking a look at the weekly, two-year.

nyseweekly1

Continues to trend up.

Taking a look at the six-month, daily.

nysedaily1

Also continues to trend up. We’ll keep a bullish trading bias on the New York Stock Exchange Composite secondary index.

With the Vix Volatility Index, we’ll go to a weekly, two-year chart, with a 40-week simple-moving-average.

vixweekly1

The implied volatility is extremely low. Coming back to a six-month, daily chart.

vixdaily1

Replacing the 40-week simple-moving-average with the 200-day simple-moving-average almost exactly the same. Again, implied volatility dropped. It is remarkably low. The Vix was down 2.3% today, closing at $9.36.

Our overall trading bias does remain bullish. Our broad market personality is still in an uptrend. The market is responding to the following including but not limited to, anything having to do with transient external stochastic shocks; our US fiscal policy; our US Federal Reserve Monetary policy - that’s coming up this week; the monetary policies of China, Europe, and Japan; the price of oil; US economic news including employment, housing, manufacturing, and retail; and our market news if there’s any mergers and acquisitions, initial public offerings, public companies going private, and earnings.

That’s all I’ve got, team. Please take care.

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